Strap in folks, it’s Sam Darnold vs Davis Mills on primetime football. Will CMC combine for over 200 all-purpose yards? Or will it be Brandon Cooks going for 100+ yards?
Our model has found the best value bets for tonights matchup between the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans.
1 Unit – Houston Texans +8 (EV)
You may be wondering why in the hell would I bet the Texans with no QB and every reason to lose this game? It’s simple, because the numbers tell us to. The Houston Texans are receiving 28% of the bets from the public, accounting for 56% of the total money being bet. That means 72% of america is betting on the Panthers to cover 8 points. Let me let you in on a little tip…the house ALWAYS wins at the end of the day and more often than not it pays to fade the public.
1.5 Units – David Johnson over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
It seems like just yesterday David Johnson was being drafted first in every fantasy league around the country anticipating a 2,000+ yard campaign. Fast forward and he’s included in arguably one of the most one sided trades in NFL history. And fast forward a few years after that and we find ourselves betting on him to run for 18 measly yards. Enough said.
Vegas Line: 17.5 yards
Blaze Projection: 24 yards
1.5 Units – Robby Anderson over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Robby Anderson and Sam Darnold are flying high together after both leaving the Jets and sitting at 2-0 with the Panthers. Anderson has seen splits of 1/57 and 3/38 through the first two weeks putting him 4th in receiving yards amongst Panthers receivers. The Texans defense is not necessarily known for its lockdown corners allowing opposing offenses 290 yards through the air on average for the first two games (Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield). Expect Robby to see plenty of action tonight as a the third option behind CMC and DJ Moore.
Vegas Line: 43.5 Yards
Blaze Projection: 49 yards
As always, we ask that you gamble responsibly and manage your risk accordingly with your bankroll. At Blaze we advise that you follow the unit scale and NEVER wager more than 5% on any one bet. See a break down of the Blaze Unit Scale below for reference on what you should be wagering.
| Units | Risk Amount | Bankroll: $10,000 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $100 | |
| 2 | $200 | |
| 3 | $300 | |
| 4 | $400 | |
| 5 | $500 |
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