Good morning football fans and welcome to the greatest day of your week, NFL Sunday. Ten hours of non stop football which means ten hours of passive income in my eyes. With that being said it’s time to lock it in and run Vegas dry. Here’s todays picks:
1u – Cincinnati Bengals +3
This one opened up at Bengals +5.5 and could very well close at +2 by game time. We’re fading the public for the most part with this play as we see the Bengals receiving only 34% of the bets yet account for 87% of the money in play. Whats this mean? The big players favor the bengals where as the public favors the Steelers.
1u – Kenyan Drake over 20.5 Receiving Yards
There is a few reason this is an enticing pick. For starters, Josh Jacobs is currently listed as doubtful which means even if he does play his workload will be significantly less than usual. Next we can take a look at the first two games of the season. Drake has receiving splits of 5/59 and 5/45 all while Josh Jacobs was a healthy option. Finally we can take a look at the model projections…
Vegas Line: 20.5
Blaze Prediction: 26
1u – Randall Cobb over 17.5 Receiving Yards
Randall Cobb has been more of a mentor than a massive contributor on the field but that has not stopped him from going for 25+ yards in each of the first two games. Every year there are a few players that the books just don’t catch up with until weeks have gone by and it usually doesn’t matter because it will be players that nobody really bets on. Long story short, until the books raise his line above 20, the model is going to love it every time.
Vegas Line: 17.5
Blaze Prediction: 21
2u – Davante Adams over 5.5 Receptions
Personally one of my favorite plays of the day. Adams is averaging nearly 7 catches per game so far this season and let’s not forget he averaged 8.2 catches per game during the 2020 campaign. The Packers offense found some groove against the Lions after an abysmal week 1 showing. Expect the pack to keep firing through the air against the 49ers on Sunday.
Vegas Line: 5.5
Blaze Prediction: 7.5
1u – Justin Herbert over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Justin has started the season less than what his camp had probably expected before it all started. Insert Chiefs vs Chargers. A series that over the last 6 matchups has seen an average of 53 points scored. Time to wake up Mr. Herbert, Patrick Mahomes will probably have 4 of his own…we think you can get 2 for yourself.
Vegas Line: 1.5
Blaze Prediction: 2
Parlays (.5 units each)
NY Giants ML + Dallas/Philadelphia under 51.5 (+230)
Vikings ML + Lions 7.5 (+299)
As always, we ask that you gamble responsibly and manage your risk accordingly with your bankroll. At Blaze we advise that you follow the unit scale and NEVER wager more than 5% on any one bet. See a break down of the Blaze Unit Scale below for reference on what you should be wagering.
| UNITS | RISK AMOUNT | BANKROLL: $10,000 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $100 | |
| 2 | $200 | |
| 3 | $300 | |
| 4 | $400 | |
| 5 | $500 |
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