NFL Sunday Best Bets (Week 4)

2021 NFL Record: 8-8 (-.1 units)

Full disclaimer: we are betting on the Jet’s this week.

Numbers! Numbers! Numbers! If you want to profit in the sport of gambling, yes I said sport, then you have to look at every team and every player as just another number. Not ready to give up enjoying the sports you grew up loving just for the game? It’s time to close this article then (only partly joking). Let’s take a look at what the model has for us this week.

1u – NY Jets +6.5 (-107)

The Jets have been pretty abysmal this year, BUT they get a little treat this week having to play the Titans without the likes of AJ Brown and Julio Jones. Expect to see a heavy dose of Derrick Henry against a Jets defense that ranks in the middle of the pack for rush defense. Another aspect of this play is it fits right into the sweet spot of % bet vs % of money coming in with 31% of the bets account for 64% of the money.

1u – Football Team / Falcons over 47.5

If Taylor Heinicke had one fan on this earth it would be me. Guns a blazing, Heinicke has a spot in this league and will be around for awhile. With that being said, we expect the matchup between The Football Team and the Falcons to be a high scoring affair (with most the scoring coming from the Football Team).

Vegas Line: 47.5

Blaze Prediction: 52

1u – Travis Kelce under 92.5 Receiving Yards

Kelce has surpassed 100 yards in each of the last two games, being used as the main target down the stretch for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have yet to find their groove this season and I do not expect it to come against the Eagles on Sunday. Look for the Chiefs to go heavy on the ground game this Sunday.

Vegas Line: 92.5

Blaze Prediction: 83 receiving yards

1u – David Montgomery under 73 Rushing Yards

I think all Bears fans are secretly hoping that the Lions win on Sunday and the likes of Matt Nagy can finally be gone…or at least if I was a Bears fan that’s what I would be thinking. Montgomery started the season off hot with a 100 yard performance against a tough Rams defense. Since then, he has averaged 45 yards/game on the same amount of carries. Expect a heavy workload from Montgomery on Sunday, but a much more active game from Fields with Nagy on the hot seat.

Vegas Line: 73

Blaze Prediction: 56.5

Other Props: .5u each

Tom Brady over 303.5 passing yards

Derrick Henry under 125 rushing yards

Kareem Hunt over 29.5 rushing yards

Lamar Jackson over 62.5 rushing yards

Parlays: .5u each

NY Giants +7 & Cowboys/Panthers under 52 (+263)

Eagles ML / 49ers ML / Packers ML / Chargers ML (+1221)

Bills -17 & Cardinals +4.5 (+309)

As always, we ask that you gamble responsibly and manage your risk accordingly with your bankroll. At Blaze we advise that you follow the unit scale and NEVER wager more than 5% on any one bet. See a break down of the Blaze Unit Scale below for reference on what you should be wagering.

UNITSRISK AMOUNTBANKROLL: $10,000
1$100 
2$200 
3$300 
4$400 
5$500