2021 NFL Record: 5-7 (-1.1 units)
As the season progresses, the model gets stronger with more and more data. This is why I typically go pretty light in the first 4-5 weeks of the season. Once I feel it has really been given enough stats, you will see longer cards with lot’s more plays. Following along the unit scale is also very important as we did have a losing week, but it did not break the bank and we are right back at it this week.
With the Thursday night matchup between the Jags and Bengals I feel like I should be preparing for a 2019 CFB National Championship between Clemson and LSU. A couple years later and the stars in college seem to be finding their way in the big league. There were a handful of props I liked tonight on top of a spread/under play. Let’s move.
.5 units – Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 (-109)
Fade the public play of the night and I am here for it. The Jaguars played their best half of football last week against the Arizona Cardinals when they took a lead into halftime. If we are taking baby steps with Trevor Lawrence we look at that as a win and to continue to growth the Jags will put up a fight for at least 3 quarters right? Not to mention this opened up at Jags +2.5. This one will be fun, keep it small.
.5 units – Under 46 total points (-109)
When I said this one would be fun, I meant it would be fun and ugly. Both teams have gone under in their past two games, neither reaching this point total. There is not much to say about this one other than the public is also slightly favoring the over, adding more value to our play on the under.
1 units – Joe Mixon under 87.5 rushing yards (-120)
Vegas is being very narrow minded with this line and is holding a lot of value on the week 3 performance of 90 yards on 18 carries. If you take out the first game of the season (126 yards on 29 carries), you get a true average of 84.5 yards. Mixon has gone over 25 carries only 5 times in his entire career (about 4 seasons). The model doesn’t like him to come within 15 yards of this line, let’s ride.
Vegas Line: 87.5
Blaze Projection: 65.7
1.5 units – Carlos Hyde over 17.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
To keep it simple; Hyde is averaging 6-8 attempts per game and averaging nearly 30 yards per contest. The only outlier was a game where he tweaked an injury and had to sit out, only seeing 2 touches. The model is all over this, as it should be. I think we can call this sleeper of the week.
Vegas Line: 17.5
Blaze Projection: 29
1 unit – Jacob Hollister over 1.5 receptions (+180)
Hollister saw his first action of the season off of injury this past weekend against the Cardinals and saw 6 targets for 2 catches. Lawrence loved going to his new target and we expect that target rate to stay consistent. The books will catch up in a week or two, for now we’ll take the money.
Vegas Line: 1.5
Blaze Projection: 2.5
As always, we ask that you gamble responsibly and manage your risk accordingly with your bankroll. At Blaze we advise that you follow the unit scale and NEVER wager more than 5% on any one bet. See a break down of the Blaze Unit Scale below for reference on what you should be wagering.
| UNITS | RISK AMOUNT | BANKROLL: $10,000 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $100 | |
| 2 | $200 | |
| 3 | $300 | |
| 4 | $400 | |
| 5 | $500 |
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